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Last week we started a regular feature, including predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season.

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 77-85 record for the Jays, and on average finishing in last, 12 games behind the Red Sox. Last week the sites predicted on average the Jays would finish 78-84 and 10 games back of the Red Sox.

Predictions (accessed at 7:30 AM ET, April 23, 2017, updated at 1:01 PM ET on April 23, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 89-73 

New York Yankees 84-78  (5 GB)

Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (6 GB)

Baltimore Orioles 83-79 (6 GB)

Toronto Blue Jays 77-85 (12 GB)

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

Boston Red Sox 88-74
New York Yankees 85-77 (3 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 85-77(3 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87 (13 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com*

Boston Red Sox 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 84-78 (4 GB)
New York Yankees 82-80 (6 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 79-83 (9 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 77-85 (11 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 90-72
New York Yankees 86-76 (6 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 85-77 (6 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (11 GB)

*Note: Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

 

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