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This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 76-86 record for the Jays, and on average finishing in last, 12 games behind the Red Sox. Last week the sites predicted on average the Jays would finish 77-85.

Predictions (accessed at 7:49 AM ET, April 30, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 88-74 (last week projection of 89-73) 

New York Yankees 87-75, 1 GB (last week 84-78)

Tampa Bay Rays 81-81, 7 GB (last week 83-79)

Baltimore Orioles 81-81, 7 GB (last week 83-79)

Toronto Blue Jays 76-86, 12 GB (last week 77-85)

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

New York Yankees 88-74
Boston Red Sox 86-76 (2 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 83-79(5 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 80-82 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87 (13 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 88-74
New York Yankees 84-78 (4 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (6 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 78-84 (10 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86 (12 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 89-73
New York Yankees 88-74 (1 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 83-79 (6 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (7 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 78-84 (11 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (86 + 88 + 89)/3 or (263/3) or 87.67, which is rounded up to 88.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

 

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