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Kendrys Morales hits a home run to tie up the game in the 9th inning vs. the Red Sox, sending the game into extra innings. (Blue Jays Blog)

This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 80-82 record for the Jays, and finishing on average 8 games behind the Red Sox. Last week the sites predicted on average the Jays would finish 77-85. Given that the Jays have been 6-1 in the past week, moving from 10-20 to 16-21, it’s not surprising that these models have projected an improved record for the season, though still giving the Jays a final record slightly under .500.

The AL East division race still looks to be projected to be fairly tight, with 4 games separating the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles, with the Rays and Jays 8 games back.

Predictions (accessed at 12:36 PM ET, May 14, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 88-74 (unchanged from last week’s projection)

New York Yankees 87-75, 1 GB (last week 88-74) 

Baltimore Orioles 84-78, 4 GB (unchanged from last week)

Tampa Bay Rays 80-82, 8 GB (last week 82-80)

Toronto Blue Jays 80-82, 8 GB (last week 77-85)

 

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

 

New York Yankees 89-73

Boston Red Sox 87-75 (2 GB)

Baltimore Orioles 86-76 (3 GB)

Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (10 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 78-84 (11 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 87-75 (4 GB)
New York Yankees 85-77 (2 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 80-82 (5 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 81-81 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 78-84 (9 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 90-72
New York Yankees 88-74 (2 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 85-77 (5 GB)
Blue Jays 82-80 (8 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 81-81 (9 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (87 + 87 + 90)/3 or (264/3) or 88.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

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