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This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 78-84 record for the Jays, and finishing on average 9 games behind the Red Sox. Last week the sites predicted on average the Jays would finish 80-82.

The average prediction for the AL East division continues to suggest a tight race, with New York predicted on average to finish one game ahead of the Red Sox, and Baltimore and Tampa are predicted to finish 3 and 4 games back respectively, with Toronto 9 games out.

Predictions (accessed at 9:31 AM ET, May 21, 2017)

Three site average:

New York Yankees 87-75 (last week average projection was 88-74)

Boston Red Sox 86-76, 1 GB (unchanged from last week) 

Baltimore Orioles 84-78, 3 GB (last week 84-78)

Tampa Bay Rays 83-79, 4 GB (last week 80-82)

Toronto Blue Jays 78-84, 9 GB (last week 80-82)



1. Fivethirtyeight.com

 

New York Yankees 88-74

Baltimore Orioles 86-76 (2 GB)

Boston Red Sox 84-78 (4 GB)

Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (5 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86 (12 GB)



2. BaseballProspectus.com**

 

Boston Red Sox 86-76
New York Yankees 85-77 (1 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (3 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 80-82 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 77-85 (9 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 89-73
New York Yankees 88-74 (1 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 85-77 (4 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 80-82 (9 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (84 + 86 + 89)/3 or (259/3) or 86.33, rounded down to 86.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

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