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This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 77-85 record for the Jays, and in all cases finishing last, on average 11 games behind the Red Sox. Last week the sites predicted on average the Jays would finish 76-86.

With respect to the rest of the division, the projected standings have changed slightly, to suggest a fairly tight race, which if the season ends according to projections would see 4 games between 1st and 3rd. An increase to the Yankees’ projected number of wins from 87 to 88 puts them in a projected tie with Red Sox and a revision to the Orioles number of wins from 81 last week to 84 this week would put them only 4 games back.

Predictions (accessed at 10:01 AM ET, May 7, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 88-74 (unchanged from last week’s projection) 

New York Yankees 88-74, (last week projected at 87-75)

Baltimore Orioles 84-78, 4 GB (last week 81-81)

Tampa Bay Rays 82-80, 6 GB (last week 81-81)

Toronto Blue Jays 77-85, 11 GB (last week 76-86)

 

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

 

New York Yankees 90-72

Boston Red Sox 87-75 (3 GB)

Baltimore Orioles 86-76 (4 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 81-81 (9 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87 (15 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 88-74
New York Yankees 85-77 (3 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 84-78 (4 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 80-82 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86 (12 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 90-72
New York Yankees 89-73 (1 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 85-77 (5 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (11 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (87 + 88 + 90)/3 or (265/3) or 88.3, which is rounded down to 88.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

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