So here we are at the end of the first week of the season, with the Jays’ home opener just around the corner. To this point the Jays’ first week has been lackluster, with a 1-5 record, after a 12-18 record in spring training. Despite the poor record though, there have been good signs, as in four games the Jays’ pitching staff has picked up right where it left off last year. The other two though were not so memorable.
It’s interesting at this early point of the season to look down the road to fall and speculate where the Jays will end up. Making predictions is always a dangerous thing to do, as what can seem obvious at the beginning of the year can prove completely wrong by the time September rolls around.
With that being said, most prognosticators I have looked at have been fairly consistent, predicting the Bosox to finish first, and the Jays to finish second or third. Hopefully the Jays will finish at least second and this will good enough for a wild card spot.
Below are a few predictions you can find online. I have included the links for each site in case you want to read further. Note that some of these projections change day to day, so they may differ from when I accessed them on April 9th.
Source 1: Fivethirtyeight.com
Fivethirtyeight.com predicts the Jays will finish third in the east, and end up at 81-81, with a 30% chance at making the playoffs, a 16% chance of winning the east and only a 3% chance of winning the World Series. According to the site the Bosox are predicted to finish 88-74, with a 57% chance at making the playoffs, a 38% chance of winning their divisional and a 7% chance of winning the World Series.
The Rays follow, with a predicted finish of 83-79. Rounding out the rest of the division the Orioles are predicted to finish in fourth with an 80-82 record, and the Yankees to finish last at 79-83.
Source 2: Fangraphs
Fangraphs predicts the Jays will end up with an 84-78 record, finishing in a third place tie with the Rays, and behind the Bosox who it predicts will finish 90-72. The Orioles are predicted to finish one game behind the Jays and Rays with an 83-79 record, and the Yankees predicted to finish last at 79-83.
Source 3: The Bleacher Report
The Bleacher Report is the most generous of the three sites, predicting the Jays will finish 86-76, and in second place on their own. The site also gives the highest projected record of the three to the Bosox, which it predicts will finish at 97-65, which if accurate would mean finishing with a 11 game lead on the Jays.
TBR predicts the Orioles to finish third at 83-79, in front of the Yankees who it predicts will finish at .500 at 81-81. Lastly, the site predicts a 70-92 record for the Rays.
It is important to note that this is a post from February, and unlike the other two sites does not update on an ongoing basis according to what occurs over the course of the season.
We’ll check in later in the season to see what the first two sites are saying. It’s hard to say much at this point in the season because it’s only been the first week, but it’s always fun to see what the predictions are.