July 2: Updated Projected Standings

July 2: Updated Projected Standings


This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 78-84 record for the Jays, compared to an average projection of 80-82 last week. If all of these projections hold true this would put the Jays 13 games out of first behind the Red Sox at the end of the year. The Yankees are projected to finish 4 game out, the Rays 9 games back and the Orioles 15 games out.

Predictions (accessed at 12:40 PM ET, July 2, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 91-71, (compared to 89-73 last week)
New York Yankees 87-75, 4 GB (unchanged from last week)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80, 9 GB (last week 83-79)
Toronto Blue Jays 78-84, 13 GB (last week 80-82)
Baltimore Orioles 76-86, 15 GB (unchanged from last week)

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

Boston Red Sox 90-72
New York Yankees 88-74 (2 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86 (14 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 76-86 (14 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 90-72
New York Yankees 86-76 (4 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (8 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 78-84 (12 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 75-87 (15 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 92-70
New York Yankees 87-75 (5 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (10 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 81-81 (11 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 78-84 (14 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (90 + 90 + 92)/3 or (272/3) or 90.66 or 91.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.

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