June 18: Updated Projected Standings

June 18: Updated Projected Standings


This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 81-81 record for the Jays, unchanged from the average projections last week. If all of these projections hold true this would put the Jays 8 games out of first behind the Red Sox and Yankees at the end of the year.

As you can see below the average projections are fairly consistent compared to last week, with three teams (Boston, Tampa and Toronto) have projected records that are unchanged. The Yankees’ projected final number of wins has dropped from 91 to 89, reflecting their five game losing streak. Given that we are only a few weeks away from the halfway point of the season it is not surprising that the projections are more consistent week to week then they were earlier in the season.

The Jays are projected to finish 4th, 8 games back of the Red Sox and Yankees, with the Orioles in fifth at 11. Tampa is projected to finish one game ahead of the Jays with 82 wins, 7 games out of first.

Predictions (accessed at 9:46 AM ET, June 18, 2017)

Three site average:

New York Yankees 89-73 (last week average projection was 91-71 )
Boston Red Sox 89-73, (unchanged)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80, 7 GB (unchanged)
Toronto Blue Jays 81-81, 8 GB (unchanged)
Baltimore Orioles 78-84, 11 GB (last week 79-83)

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

New York Yankees 90-72
Boston Red Sox 88-74 (2 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 81-81 (9 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (11 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 77-85 (13 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 89-73
New York Yankees 87-75 (2 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (7 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (10 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 76-86 (13 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 91-71
New York Yankees 89-73 (2 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 84-78 (7 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (9 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 80-82 (11 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Yankees is calculated as follows: (90 + 87 + 89)/3 or (266/3) or 88.67 or 89.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.