June 25: Updated Projected Standings

June 25: Updated Projected Standings


This a regular feature which has predictions for the AL East from three sites with statistical models that are updated on a regular basis, based on what has occurred over the course of the season. The records below show show the predictions from each of the individual sites, as well as a three site average.*

This week the three sites, on average, are predicting a 80-82 record for the Jays, compared to an average projection of 81-81 last week. If all of these projections hold true this would put the Jays 9 games out of first behind the Red Sox at the end of the year. The Yankees are projected to finish 1 game out, the Rays 6 games back and the Orioles 12 games out.

Predictions (accessed at 10:30 AM ET, June 25, 2017)

Three site average:

Boston Red Sox 89-73, (unchanged from last week’s projection)
New York Yankees 87-75, 2 GB (last week 89-73)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79, 6 GB (last week 82-80)
Toronto Blue Jays 80-82, 9 GB (last week 81-81)
Baltimore Orioles 77-85, 12 GB (last week 78-84)

1. Fivethirtyeight.com

New York Yankees 88-74
Boston Red Sox 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 82-80 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 78-84 (10 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 76-86 (12 GB)

2. BaseballProspectus.com**

Boston Red Sox 89-73
New York Yankees 86-76 (3 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (6 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 79-83 (10 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 76-86 (13 GB)

3. Fangraphs.com

Boston Red Sox 91-71
New York Yankees 88-74 (3 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 83-79 (8 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (8 GB)
Baltimore Orioles 79-83 (12 GB)

*The three site average is a simple calculation for the number of wins and losses adds the wins and losses for teams from each of the sites and then divides it by three. For example the number of wins for the Red Sox is calculated as follows: (88 + 89 + 91)/3 or (268/3) or 89.33 or 89.

**Baseball Prospectus only provides projections for the remainder of the season. I have added the current standings to their rest of season projections.